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Escaping from recession

Recently there have been some news reports of other countries such as France, Germany and Japan managing to get out of recession. What this means is that the total size of their economy, or GDP, has increased over the last quarter. Britain’s economy is still in decline, but since this is a global recession signs of recovery in other counties (especially those we trade closely with) is encouraging.

Unfortunately, this doesn’t mean very much for you and me. After a couple of quarters of stable growth, we should see loans and mortgages get easier to come by and unemployment start to fall – but right now I’m afraid that even if our economy stabilises or starts to grow again it will be very cautiously.

Tags: Economy, Loans, Mortgages, recession, recovery

A ray of hope?

There’s good news in the housing market, at least for the moment. This article by the BBC shows that for the fifth month in a row, The Nationwide have reported an increase in house prices compared to the previous month. House prices are still lower than they were this time last year, but are on their way back up.

A couple of notes of caution, however, before we start celebrating the recovery of the housing market and the economy as a whole. Firstly, as you can see from the chart in the BBC article, house prices are also tracked by The Halifax and they have yet to release their results for July. Their June figures were noticeably less positive than those from The Nationwide and so perhaps they will not show the same improvement in July. Secondly, it is unlikely that this rate of growth can continue. Although the housing market is recovering, the economy is much worse than it was 2 years ago, the last time we had growth like this – there are fewer people working and less money available for house purchases. After the initial “correction”, we should see the prices increase at a lower rate.

And this could be no bad thing – after all, one of the largest causes of the current economic climate was the “house price bubble”, hopefully we have all learned our lesson (I’m including lenders and borrowers in that statement) and will take things slower from now on. Lenders are reticent to lend their money to high-risk borrowers, having been stung recently, and if they are properly regulated it should help stop people from being tempted into buying something they can’t afford. These two further articles from the BBC tell us that lenders are relaxing a bit and allowing more mortgages to be taken out – which means more house sales, which increases demand and therefore the price of houses. When we get the right balance between lending to no one and lending to everyone, we should see stable growth in the housing market (which is a good foundation stone for economic recovery).

We may get out of this mess yet.

Tags: Economy, house prices, houses, Loans, Mortgages, recession, recovery

Healthcare in the USA

Another thing that is being mentioned a lot in the news in the States at the moment is universal healthcare. They don’t have an equivalent of the NHS that we have in the UK, to get healthcare in the US you need to have health insurance. Just as with car insurance or travel insurance, the more you pay the better coverage you get – the cheaper insurance policies will have high excesses (the amount you have to pay in the event of a claim) and may not cover all treatments.

The cost of insurance has been going up in recent years, and more and more Americans can’t afford to have any insurance at all. Small businesses are also finding it difficult to provide healthcare for their employees, as they can’t negotiate big discounts with healthcare providers. The number of Americans without insurance has been increasing, and although hard numbers are difficult to find (different organisations count the uninsured in different ways), this study claims that it could be as many as one in three are uninsured.

President Obama is pushing for healthcare reform which would cover all Americans with a government-run system, the cost of which is estimated at $611 billion. That’s a lot of money, and it could hit American taxpayers for years to come. However, it may end up costing them less than the private insurance route – as this Wikipedia article says, more is spent per person for healthcare in the US than in any other country – a centralised approach may be more efficient.

What relevance does this have for us in the UK? I believe that healthcare reform could help improve the US economy, and as I said in my last post, that will help bring the world out of recession. Why do I think this? Small businesses in the US are struggling in the current economic climate – they are having to cut healthcare benefits for their employees, or face increasing costs. Citizens with insurance spend less time being ill (as they get better treatment, or indeed any treatment, and also can take preventative measures like regular check-ups) and therefore take less time off work and are therefore more productive. With the burden of providing healthcare for employees lifted, small businesses and family-run businesses should be able to weather the storm of the global recession, and turn a profit sooner.

This is all assuming that the cost of medical insurance as it is currently is higher than the increased taxes that will be required for government healthcare to be provided. This is by no means certain, and of course, health insurance is optional but taxes are not!

Tags: dollar, Economy, healthcare reform, recession, recovery, united states, us

The U.S. economy as one to watch

I’m in the United States at the moment, and the news here is of an economy that is still unstable. A recent report shows that not only are employers still cutting jobs, but that the number of jobs lost in June was more than were lost in May. Despite this, Barack Obama is confident that things are stabilising.

Why is the US economy important to us in the UK? The United States has the largest economy in the world and affects the economies of most of the rest of the world, including the UK. There are a range of ways economies affect one another – for example, if the US suffers from a poor economy there will be less demand in the US for British goods and services, as money is tight. Also, our financial institutions work very closely with those in the US – the bad debt created with the sub-prime loans in the US affected banks worldwide, and our own banks had been making sub-prime loans of their own.

It will be possible for the UK economy to recover before that of the USA – and in fact it might happen that way – UK industry does not seem to be suffering as badly as in the US, and we have a smaller economy to turn around. However, it is most likely that the global recovery will begin only once the US itself is in recovery – and the news over here suggests that’s some way off, at least for the moment.

Tags: banks, Economy, recession, recovery, unemployment, us