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​​Assessing the impact of AI on the job landscape 

by Madaline Dunn

For many, it feels like ChatGPT came out of nowhere, only to completely shift day-to-day living. OpenAI launched its language model-based chatbot back on November 30, 2022, and in the short amount of time it’s been out, it’s had a BIG impact, and competitors have since come onto the scene with their respective offerings.

But, what does it all mean? AI experts are warning of danger ahead, and already, companies like IBM and BT have signalled that they will be making AI-related job cuts.

In all the hubbub, it can be difficult to know where you stand, so in this week’s article, we’ll explore the following:

• The potential scale of impact on jobs
• How people from the world of work are reacting
• How is the government dealing with the potential threat

The scale of the issue and impact

When listening to the experts, it seems as though the advancement of AI is unavoidable and inescapable, and it will undoubtedly have a presence in our lives. But how will it impact the world of work?

According to a report by investment bank Goldman Sachs early this year, AI could potentially replace a quarter of work tasks in the US and Europe – however, it will impact sectors differently.

While 46% of tasks in administration and 44% in legal professions could be replaced by automation, for construction, the figure stands at 6%.

It’s also worth noting that this displacement will also likely be experienced differently for men and women, with women dominating in clerical work. Indeed, research shows that more than twice the share of female employment could be affected.

High-income economies are also more likely to be affected, at a rate of 5.5 per cent, versus 0.4 per cent in low-income economies. That said, experts say that many places aren’t yet prepared for the disruption ahead. Some figures show that over 50 million Chinese workers will require retraining, while in the US, this figure stands at 11.5 million.

It’s also important to note that forecasts vary widely, too, and while there have been a number of potentially catastrophic forecasts, including from Cred CEO Kunal Shah, who recently warned that 90% of people could lose their jobs in the next ten years, the likes of Forrester predict that generative AI will “influence 4.5 times more jobs than it replaces.”

Responses from the world of work

But how do those in the workforce feel about AI? It’s really quite mixed.

According to some research, 36% feel that AI will make them feel more stressed, while 37% are concerned it will mean their work is less accurate. Meanwhile, 38% shared data privacy concerns.

Elsewhere, Censuswide, on behalf of Visier, found that those already using AI in the workplace saved around 1.55 hours a day – or 390 hours a year and 40 per cent think it will enhance their work-life balance.

Further to this, around 31 per cent believe it can help close the skills gap in the UK. This is huge, considering that 73% continue to report skills gaps, only 11% of UK workers have digital skills and 54% of organisations don’t have specific skills initiatives in place for specific talent pools. 67%, meanwhile, believe that developing AI skills will be important for their future career growth.

Speaking about this, Ben Harris, Director UK MD at Visier, said: “The workplace has been disrupted by rapid innovation and everyone has a role to play in its smooth adoption. With skills gaps widening across the UK, AI can alleviate a wide range of pain points. But, with opportunity comes responsibility.”

In order to survive and thrive in the new world of AI, some have suggested that workers learn how to code, become more data literate, and hone in skills that are AI-proof, such as communication, collaboration and adaptability skills. A central focus for people in this new world of work will also be becoming lifelong learners.

How is the government dealing with the potential threat?

Considering opinions are so divided, and the technology will reshape the world we live in so dramatically, you might be wondering what the government plans- on doing to regulate it and keep things in check. There’s also a lot of support for regulation, with almost 60% of British people wanting regulation to be introduced for AI in the workplace, according to Prospect Trade Union.

The government set out the need to legislate in an AI white paper earlier this year, but has been urged to speed things up due to how quickly AI is evolving.

Recently, the Science, Innovation and Technology Committee chair and Conservative MP Greg Clark said: “If there isn’t legislation passed in this session, then assuming the election is in late 2024, the earliest that new legislation can reach the statute book is mid to late 2025.”

Clark pointed out that, by then, two years will have passed, by which time, AI will have continued to be deployed and developed without the “statutory means to govern it.”

“And other jurisdictions such as the EU or the US will be proceeding themselves, and there is a danger that what has become embedded in Europe and in the US could become the default means of regulation, even if we had a better model in mind. That’s another reason for getting on with it.”

Elsewhere, the TUC recently launched an AI taskforce, bringing together leading specialists in law, technology, politics, HR and the voluntary sector for legal protections for both employers and workers. It reportedly aims to publish an expert-drafted AI and Employment Bill early in 2024 and will also lobby to have it incorporated into UK law.

The taskforce says that the UK is “way behind the curve” on the regulation of AI, and outlines that AI capabilities, left unchecked, could result in “greater discrimination, unfairness and exploitation at work across the economy.”

It appears there’s still a long way to go when it comes to implementing regulation around AI and while the UK plans to hold an AI Safety Summit in November, that’s still quite some way off.

Tags: AI, Economy, employment, Jobs, work

Universal basic income trialled in two places in England

by Madaline Dunn

There’s no denying we are living in challenging times right now. The cost of living crisis isn’t subsiding, financial insecurity is on the rise, the climate crisis is worsening. We’re also living in an era where technology is reshaping quite literally everything, including the world of work with AI and automation ramping up.

Universal Basic Income (UBI) is being proposed as a way of safeguarding against these disruptions, bolstering income security and reducing poverty.

In this week’s article, we’ll walk you through:

• What universal basic income is
• Where, why and how is it being trialled
• The pros and cons of the introduction of universal basic income.

What is universal basic income?

The idea of Universal Basic Income stretches as far back as 1516 in Sir Thomas More’s Utopia, and it’s essentially a guaranteed income for everyone in society. As of late, following the disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic, the rise of automation and AI, it’s becoming a serious conversation.

It’s been tried in many places all over the world. In the US, for example, there are long-running UBI schemes, including in Alaska. It’s also seen in the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians Casino Dividend in North Carolina. Elsewhere, Finland has trialled UBI schemes, as have Spain, the Netherlands, Kenya, India and more. Currently, in Wales, there is a basic income pilot for 18-year-olds leaving the care system. Over 500 participants are receiving £1,600 a month for two years after turning 18.

As noted, the pandemic really revitalised conversation around UBI, and back in 2020, over 170 MPs and peers actually called for a basic income. As we know, this didn’t go forward, and instead, the government introduced furlough.

At the time, the now Prime Minister and then Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, told the Commons: “We’re not in favour of a universal basic income, although we have strengthened the safety net for the most vulnerable in our society with over £7bn invested in improving our welfare system.”

Speaking about the increasing need to pivot toward UBI, Will Stronge, the director of research at the thinktank Autonomy, said: “Our society is going to require some form of basic income in the coming years, given the tumult of climate change, tech disruption and industrial transition that lies ahead. This is why building the evidence base and public engagement now is so important, so the ground is well prepared for national implementation.”

What’s going on with the trials?

The UK is currently running a micro pilot scheme to test this out. Led by Autonomy, the scheme will run in central Jarrow, in north-east England, and East Finchley, in north London. A total of 30 people will be randomly selected from a group of volunteers, with 20% of places allocated to people with disabilities. They will receive £1,600 every month for two years. This will cost £1.15m across the two-year period.

Alongside this group, there will also be a control group, which will not receive the basic income amount, and their experiences will be monitored alongside the other group.

The likes of Green MP Caroline Lucas welcomed the plans and said: “It’s so exciting to see these plans for England’s first ever basic income pilot scheme,” she said. “We are in such uncertain times – worsening job insecurity, spiralling cost of living and a welfare state creaking at the seams.

“We need big, bold ideas to provide security and dignity for all – tackling poverty, improving wellbeing and transforming society. The government can’t ignore this idea any longer,” she added.

The Green Party has long advocated for its introduction. Back in 2019, for example, it became the first political party to promise a fully costed Universal Basic Income for every resident by 2025.

Meanwhile, Cleo Goodman, a co-founder of the initiative Basic Income Conversation, commented: “We’re hopeful that this plan will result in the first ever basic income pilots in England. No one should ever be facing poverty, having to choose between heating and eating, in one of the wealthiest countries in the world. Basic income has the potential to simplify the welfare system and tackle poverty in Britain.”

According to estimates, if this kind of UBI programme was implemented on a national level, it would reportedly cost just under £1 trillion.

Weighing up the pros and cons

There’s no escaping the working landscape looks very different on the horizon, and indeed, Stronge notes: “With the decades ahead set to be full of economic shocks due to climate change and new forms of automation, basic income is going to be a crucial part of securing livelihoods in the future.”

Further, he added that “all the evidence” demonstrates that it would “directly alleviate poverty” and “boost millions of people’s wellbeing.” He says that, ultimately, the potential benefits are “just too large to ignore.”

But, it’s not without its critics, and, as we’ve outlined above, it would be expensive, as well as requiring a huge overhaul of both our tax and social security systems. But, with such big disruptions to work and living in store, large-scale changes seem almost inevitable.

There are also critics who argue that UBI would de-incentivise people from working and result in inequity. That being said, regarding the former point, a Finnish study on UBI found that there was actually a greater incentive to work, and also meant that people had more time to pursue business ideas.

With the trial running for two years, it will be some time until we have data to analyse, but it’s an idea that’s increasingly entering the mainstream.

Tags: Economy, employment, universal basic income