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The mini-budget and its impact on personal finances

by Madaline Dunn

If the headlines have got you feeling concerned, you’re not alone. It’s been an incredibly difficult few years financially, and the knocks appear to keep coming. The Conservative government’s recent mini-budget has brought in a raft of changes and sent shock waves across markets. However, the implications for personal finances have stretched much further than simply tax cuts, with the pound crashing to a record low, with, what has been called “open revolt” in markets.

At The Salary Calculator, we understand that there is power in knowledge, and the best way to equip yourself for the changes ahead is to be informed. So, below, we’ll explore:

• The changes introduced by the mini-budget,
• How the budget will impact personal finances,
• What the mini-budget means for the value of the pound and living expenses,
• The government U-turn.

The mini-budget

During his emergency Budget speech on Friday, 23 September, the new Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng introduced the mini-budget which brought in sweeping changes to income tax, National Insurance (NI), Universal Credit, Stamp Duty, and bankers bonuses.

For income tax, from April 2023, the basic rate of income tax will be cut by 1% (from 20% to 19%). Under former Chancellor Rishi Sunak, this was meant to come in the following year. In addition to this, Kwarteng announced that the additional rate of income tax, currently applicable to earnings above $150,000, would also been scrapped, meaning that the highest earners would pay the 40% tax rate on their earnings, rather than 45% (more on that later).

According to the Treasury, these changes will result in 31 million people being better off by an average of £170 per year. However, an analysis from the thinktank The Resolution Foundation at the time of the announcement outlined that “only the very richest households in Britain” would see their incomes grow as a result of the tax changes, with the wealthiest 5% to see their incomes grow by 2% next year (2023/24).

With regards to NI, from 6 November, employers and employees will pay 1.25 percentage points less in NI. This will result in employees paying NI at 12% on earnings between £12,570 and £50,270 and 2% on anything above. Employer rates, on the other hand, will revert to 13.80%.

For those on Universal Credit, in a move that Kwarteng said would “get Britain working again,” rules will get tighter. Set to come into effect in January 2023, the new rules will impact 120,000 claimants, who will be asked to “take active steps” to increase their working hours or find better-paid jobs or have their benefits reduced.

As interest rates on mortgages are projected to reach 6%, the Chancellor has also scrapped Stamp Duty. As a result, you won’t pay any stamp duty on the first £250,000 of a property. The Treasury has outlined that 200,000 more people every year will be able to buy a home without paying any stamp duty; first-time buyers will now pay no stamp duty up to £425,000 (up from £300,000). Some have voiced concerns that this will lead to further hikes in house prices, much like when Sunak announced the Stamp Duty holiday.

In a surprising move the Chancellor has also made strides toward deregulation of London’s financial industry to “boost growth.” This has come, in part, in the form of Kwarteng scrapping the banker bonus cap. Explaining this decision, the Chancellor said: “We need global banks to create jobs here, invest here and pay taxes here in London, not in Paris, not in Frankfurt and not in New York.” Unite, on the other hand, called the move an “insult to workers,” while Positive Money, a non-profit research and campaigning organisation, called it “shameful.”

The value of the pound and its effect on day-to-day living expenses

The currency markets have reacted to Kwarteng’s mini-budget with volatility, and subsequently, the pound has plummeted. At a record low, on Monday, 26 September, the pound was worth $1.0327 against the dollar. The pound also dropped sharply when the Bank of England was forced to intervene over what was being called a “material risk” to the UK economy.

But what does this mean for consumers? Well, unfortunately, it’s not good. With the pound so weak against competing currencies, the price of imports will be much higher. This is especially bad news considering that when it comes to food self-sufficiency, overall, the UK imports more than 50% of its food, with supermarkets specifically relying on imports for 40% of their food stock, meaning that the price of groceries is set to increase yet again. Moreover, regarding travelling via car, according to the AA, a weak pound means that filling up a family car could cost an extra £7.50, and that’s not taking into consideration the fact the fuel prices are already at an all-time high.

The struggling pound will also have a staggering impact on mortgages. On Monday, the financial markets forecast that the base rate could nearly treble to 6% next year. Likewise, those on variable rates (2.2 million) will immediately feel the effect of raised interest rates.

The 45p rate U-turn

In the wake of serious backlash over plans to scrap the 45p rate for those earning over £150,000 a year during a time of rising living costs, the government has announced a U-turn. This U-turn also comes following the circulation of reports that new Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng met with hedge fund managers for a champagne reception just after his mini-Budget.

In terms of what the U-turn means for the pound, those from the financial sector have warned that while sterling has performed better, a lot of questions still remain, considering that the 45 pence tax rate was only a small part of the unfunded tax cuts announced. As Jane Foley, head of FX Strategy, Rabobank, London, said: “UK assets, the pound and gilts are not out of the woods yet, and the British government has a lot to do to get back credibility.”

Moreover, while the U-turn seemed to bolster the pound, with sterling jumping as much as 1pc in early trading amid reports, it fell back to around $1.12 following the Chancellor stating he wouldn’t resign.

Tags: Consumer goods, cost of living, income tax, mini-budget, national insurance