The Salary Calculator

Mortgage rates and house prices 

by Madaline Dunn

While Liz Truss recently announced a U-turn on one of the most unpopular items in the mini-budget, scrapping the 45p rate on the highest earners, the effect of the emergency budget has been wide-ranging and is having a huge impact on the housing market.

Breaking news about house prices, mortgage deals and interest rates have hit the headlines, with the UK in financial turmoil. In the hubbub of it all, it might be hard to know where you actually stand, and it’s understandable to be concerned about what the news means for you and your home or housing dreams.

At The Salary Calculator, we’ll explain:

• How interest rates have been affected by the recent budget and what’s going on with mortgage deals
• How house prices are faring
• What the experts are advising

Interest rates and mortgage deals

The Bank of England raised interest rates from 1.75% to 2.25% in September, and following the announcement of the mini-budget, there were predictions that the Bank of England could be forced to raise the base interest rate to 6% next summer. This resulted in nearly 1,000 mortgage packages being pulled overnight from the British market. According to Moneyfacts, 935 out of 3,596 mortgage products were wiped between Tuesday and Wednesday, doubling the record high of 462 back at the start of the lockdown.

This week, it has been announced that the UK’s largest mortgage lenders are putting deals back on the market but also raising rates once more. Moneyfacts outlined on Tuesday that the average new two-year fixed rate jumped to 5.97% – this is despite having already risen to 5.75% on Monday. Halifax, part of Lloyds Banking Group, for example, announced on Wednesday that it would be updating the rates on its homebuyer mortgage rates. The result is that its rate for a two-year fixed deal for a customer offering a 25% deposit is up from 4.61% to 5.84%, while a five-year fix with the same deposit will now stand at 5.44%, and a ten-year fix will be at 5.34%. This is similar across the board.

Alongside those trying to enter the housing market, around 1.8 million fixed deals are scheduled to end next year, meaning that many people are going to be faced with high costs when it comes to taking out a new mortgage.

Of course, the news has been devastating for millions. New research by Property Rescue, which considered the perspectives of over 1,000 UK-based homeowners, found that over a third of homeowners are worried they may have to choose between heating bills and mortgage payments. Not long ago, there were reports of people having to choose between food and heating; now, the roof above their heads is in question. The study, conducted by Perspectus Global, found that 41% will now have to turn to their savings, and 21% believe they may have to sell their homes due to skyrocketing mortgage interest rates.

Speaking to those who are concerned about their mortgage prospects, Rachel Springall, a finance expert at Moneyfacts.co.uk, said: “Seeking advice from an independent broker would be wise, especially for those borrowers who have not yet started the mortgage process and are deterred by the level of choice and much higher mortgage rates than they were perhaps anticipating.”

House prices to fall

While statistics had recently shown that average asking prices were 8.7% higher in September than a year ago, following the mini-budget fiasco, house prices are now projected to fall, at least in London, according to estate agent Knight Frank. Specifically, the agent predicted a fall in the average house price by 10% over two years. Similarly, Capital Economics predicted that “despite the reduction in stamp duty,” this is the beginning of the most “significant correction” in house prices since 2007. They added: “The sharp rise in interest rates now expected means that prices are more likely to fall by 10-15% than the 7% we previously anticipated.”

Pantheon Macroeconomics senior UK economist Gabriella Dicken, on the other hand, while projecting a more conservative fall in house prices, said it “was the start of a prolonged fall in house prices” and that she expected “house prices to fall by around 5% over the next 12 months”.

Discussing the recent impact on interest rates and mortgage deals, Sarah Coles, senior personal finance analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “It’s difficult to see this as anything other than a sign of things to come, as these pressures raise the risks not only that price rises stagnate, but that they begin to fall. There is the chance that we could see a significant correction in the coming months.”

What are the experts advising

With so much uncertainty around the housing market, some mortgage experts are advising those on a fixed rate with a term of 18 months or less to reach out to their broker and consider their remortgage options. Meanwhile, Martin Lewis says that people should only overpay if their mortgage rate is higher than the rate they’d earn saving: “As a simple example, £10,000 in savings at 2% earns £200 for the year, yet use it to overpay a 3% mortgage and it reduces costs by £300 for the year. Effectively overpaying is tax-free ‘saving’ at the mortgage rate, so if the rate’s higher than savings (after tax) it wins,” he said.

For those entering the housing market for the first time, Chris Sykes at Private Finance, a mortgage broker, said it’s important to make sure your finances are in order and your credit score won’t let you down. He explained: “Borrowers need to be careful in tough times, as something as small as getting a CCJ [county court judgment] by refusing to pay a £60 parking fine, or missing payments on utility bills after moving out of a property, can affect the lenders at a borrower’s disposal, and affect their interest rates if these were recent and they have little other credit presence.”

Ultimately, make sure to think things through and access independent advice before you jump into any decisions related to your mortgage and housing. Moreover, if you’re struggling with mortgage payments, reach out for help as soon as you can. The likes of  Citizens Advice, StepChange, or National Debtline can be of help here.

Tags: cost of living, house prices, housing market, interest rates, mortgage deals