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With slow growth following the pandemic and the skyrocketing cost of living, experts have warned that the UK could be heading towards a summer recession. According to research, consumer confidence is now at its lowest in years, even lower than the 2008 financial crisis. This near-record low is indicative of an economic downturn. It’s not just the UK that’s headed for trouble, either, there is a cloud forming around the global economy.

With so much instability and uncertainty across the UK, it’s understandable that many will be concerned about this news, and at The Salary Calculator, we’ll walk you through:

• What the economy is looking like right now
• How a potential recession could affect personal finances
• How you can safeguard yourself against a potential recession

Is there a recession ahead?

A recession, by definition, occurs when negative economic growth takes place across two successive quarters. According to financial forecasts, the economy is likely to shrink by 0.2% between April and June. Recently, the pound also hit its lowest level against the dollar since September 2020.

So, while it’s not imminent, experts say the risk of a recession is rising. Early this month, Deutsche Bank’s chief UK economist Sanjay Raja said: “We continue to think that the risk of recession remains on the rise,” adding: “This is something we will be tracking very closely in the coming months. Consumer confidence data is already consistent with recessionary levels.”

Commenting on the financial forecasts by the industry, Abena Oppong-Asare, shadow exchequer secretary to the Treasury, said that while the figures are “concerning,” they come as “no surprise,” referring to what she called the “double whammy” of the National Insurance increase alongside soaring energy bills.

She added: “Collapsing consumer confidence shows how the cost of living crisis is weighing down growth. How many warnings like this does the chancellor need to grasp the seriousness of the cost of living crisis?”

How might a recession affect you and your personal finances?

Recessions can have a hugely devastating impact on personal finances. Businesses, especially small businesses, typically take a big hit when a recession swoops in. This can result in companies pursuing redundancies, cutting jobs, and pausing new hires. Of course, this can have a knock-on effect on employees. Back in the 2008 recession, unemployment reached its highest rate since 1995 at 8.4%.

Of course, job losses can lead to subsequent financial difficulties, for example, challenges paying bills, mortgages, and rent payments, which can lead to individuals taking on debt to cope. Alongside this, recessions often lead to ​​reduced economic output and consumer spending falls, too.

How can you safeguard yourself against a potential recession?

With so much discussion around the state of the economy, and lots of undeniably concerning headlines, it’s likely that many are worried about what might happen to their personal finances, and will be seeking to find ways to safeguard themselves. However, it’s important not to panic, and note that there are steps you can take to protect yourself and your savings.

With increasing taxes, record inflation, and soaring living costs in the current financial climate, it may be difficult to put some money away and save. Experts, however, recommend that in the midst of a recession, people should try to build up some kind of emergency fund. Typically, common sage advice is to build an emergency fund equivalent to six months’ worth of expenses. This can be done through small contributions, and you can even set up automatic payments to inject money into your emergency fund consistently.

Another way to protect yourself in the face of a potential recession is to cut back on your expenses. Take a look at your overall lifestyle and see if you’re overspending money, or if there’s a subscription you wouldn’t miss and could cut out. Douglas Boneparth, president of Bone Fide Wealth and a member of the CNBC Digital Financial Advisor Council, says it’s a good idea to take stock of your whole life, too. He recommends individuals ask themselves the important questions: “How do you feel about your job? Do you feel safe? What is the risk in your life right now? Did you just have a child? … Are you in good health?” After taking time to reflect on one’s outgoings, creating a reasonable budget is much more doable, and it can also make clearing your personal debt a bit easier.

Some experts advise diversifying and drip-feeding investments. Gold is a go-to for some. According to Adrian Lowry, writing in The Independent, gold has been “lauded variously as a hedge against inflation, a counterpoint to a weakening US dollar, a safe haven in times of crisis, and something to hold in portfolios that are not correlated to equities, as a diversification asset.” That said, it’s also important to be aware that gold is fairly volatile and can be subject to significant price fluctuations, meaning that it can dramatically drop in value as well as increase.

On the other hand, Sarah Coles, senior personal finance analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, recommends that people do not shy away from investment, but if worried about investing their savings in one place, they should drip-feed investments instead. She explained that this enables you to “benefit from pound-cost averaging by continually adding to your investments through different market conditions and economic cycles.” Investment Strategist Whitney Sweeney at ​​Schroders also says that diversification “is key.”

The UK government recently announced its plans to make the country a “global hub” for the crypto industry. This announcement comes after the industry criticised the UK for its stringent regulatory approach and a consultation was also conducted by the government in 2021.

However, while this announcement means that the UK will be set on a path to exploit the potential of crypto, some critics are not so sure the move is a good idea, claiming that cryptocurrency is a hotbed for criminal activity.

At The Salary Calculator, we’ll walk you through:

• How the UK will become a cryptohub
• What stablecoins are
• What the move means for the UK

UK to become home to a crypto hub

Back in 2021, the government held a consultation on its approach to cryptoasset regulation, with a particular focus on stablecoins. HM Treasury published a response to this consultation and call for evidence this month, and with that, made a number of announcements, including that the UK is to become a global hub for cryptoasset technology and investment.

Alongside this, the government said that stablecoins will be brought within regulation, and that it would legislate for a ‘financial market infrastructure sandbox’ named ‘CryptoSprint,’ which it said would encourage firms to innovate, and will be overseen by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). Likewise, a new body, namely the Cryptoasset Engagement Group, is to form and will see the government work with crypto companies. The government will also create an NFT (non-fungible token) via The Royal Mint.

Commenting on the government’s decision to move into the crypto space, Chancellor Rishi Sunak said that it was part of his ambition to make the UK a “global hub for cryptoasset technology.” He went on to say that the measures will help ensure firms “can invest, innovate and scale up” the country. Sunak also said with this policy change, the government hopes to attract the “businesses of tomorrow.”

This announcement that the UK will become a cryptohub comes shortly after its top financial regulator issued a warning that those investing in crypto “should be prepared to lose all their money.”

What are stablecoins?

The world of crypto is undeniably steeped in confusion, and you’re not alone if, when hearing the word stablecoin, you find yourself scratching your head. Stablecoins are a form of cryptocurrency which are matched against typical currencies, like, for example, the dollar or the pound.

While both stablecoins and other cryptocurrencies use blockchain technology, stablecoins are different from other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum, which are much more volatile. Stablecoins will only change in value alongside changes in regular currency. This means that unlike Bitcoin, which seemingly crashes on a regular basis, wiping over $1 trillion from market value, it is just as its name says, stable, or as stable as a currency can be. According to the Treasury’s recent announcement, these coins will be regulated the same way the pound is regulated.

Is this a positive development?

While stablecoins, which came into existence back in the mid-2010s, are arguably a safer form of cryptocurrency, they do somewhat contradict the philosophical basis of such currency. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin were created to be decentralised, so there was no need for a trusted third party or governing body. As Ronald Mulder explains, “it is based on code, mathematics, cryptography, and game theory.”

Alpay Soytürk, Chief Regulatory Officer at Spectrum Markets, also points out that another problem with stablecoins are their “unknown or insufficient or both – reserves.” For example, in 2021, writing in The Conversation, Jean-Philippe Serbera, a Senior Lecturer at Sheffield Hallam University, highlighted that while stablecoin providers promise they have reserves “worth 100% of the value of their stablecoins,” this is rarely the case. He gave the example of Tether, which holds 75% of its reserves in cash and equivalents, and USDC, which had 61% as of May 2021.

That said, cryptocurrencies, in general, are increasingly gaining popularity. One report, “Demystifying Crypto: Shedding light on the adoption of digital currencies for payments in 2022,” found that more people are adopting cryptocurrencies for online payments. Young people, in particular, are said to be in favour of using crypto payments. In 2021, for example, it was found that 30% of young people were open to these kinds of payments, and a further 23% of online businesses say they are planning on expanding their payment options to include crypto within the next few years.

Aside from using crypto for payments, studies show that more and more Millennials are investing in crypto. A recent survey found that 38% had invested in crypto to diversify their investments. Likewise, a Royal Mint survey found that the same percentage of Gen Z’s are following suit.

Moreover, despite the UK government seemingly welcoming crypto with open arms, it is addressing the concerns of some, such as Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey who warns that such currencies are a “front line” in criminal scams, and an “opportunity for the downright criminal.” According to John Glen, economic secretary to the Treasury, the government is aware of what kind of nefarious opportunities crypto presents but assured naysayers that it “won’t compromise” when it comes to anti-money laundering regulations.

That said, it is perhaps worth noting the other psychological harms associated with crypto trading.​​ According to addiction experts, some young men trading crypto have begun expressing symptoms of and seeking help for problem gambling. Speaking to The Times, Barry Grant, project manager of Extern Problem Gambling, said that those traders who he had encountered displayed “classic gambling addiction progression”. He explained: “You dabble with it. You do something small, you’re having a bit of fun. Maybe you’re doing a bit of research about it. Then, you have a big win.”

Research shows that as the cost of living continues to rise, so too is borrowing – whether that’s via credit cards, or payday loans. While it can be tempting to opt for a loan in financially trying times, it’s important to keep your wits about you, and not rush into a decision without thoroughly researching.

At The Salary Calculator, we know how challenging it can be navigating the world of borrowing and loans, so below, we’ve outlined some top tips to bear in mind to keep yourself safe. This article will explore:

• Why the cost of living is getting more expensive
• How more people are borrowing than ever
• How to protect yourself when borrowing

How is the cost of living getting more expensive?

The cost of living has reached crisis levels, leaving many in UK faced with their worst financial situation in decades. Fuel, housing, and food are all getting more expensive. According to the ONS, in February, Inflation hit a new 30-year high of 6.2%, and housing costs and services increased by 7.2% within the last year, too. Moreover, rental prices went up 2.3% and homeowners saw a hike of 2.5%.

Within the same time frame, transport costs have seen an increase of 11.5%, with petrol and diesel prices rising and even hitting record levels in February. Meanwhile, food and drink prices have soared by 5.1% – according to statistics, prices for bottled water, soft drinks, juices, meat, sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and sweets increased the most.

Looking ahead, as the Russia-Ukraine war continues, with Russia and Ukraine being responsible for 30% of global wheat exports, food prices are only set to rise further.

It’s not just food, fuel and housing that’s seen a hike, either. Clothing and footwear have taken a hit, too, rising by 8.9%. Likewise, furniture, household equipment and maintenance saw a similar increase, rising by 9.2% in the past year.

Alongside the price rises, wages across the UK are now falling at their fastest rate since 2014. This is, again, because inflation is spiralling out of control.

More people borrowing than ever before

People across the UK are feeling the pinch as prices continue to soar and are turning to borrowing to help them cope with increasing financial hardship. According to figures published by the Bank of England (BoE), people borrowed a net £1.5 billion on credit cards in February, which is reportedly the highest since records began. This is even up from 2020, which saw nearly 9 million of the UK’s poorest significantly increase their borrowing amounts.

Joanna Elson, the chief executive of the Money Advice Trust, which runs the National Debtline and Business Debtline, said these borrowing statistics are “an indicator of the underlying challenges households face in meeting the growing cost of living” as she called on the chancellor to provide more targeted help for hard-pressed households.” Adding: “Our concern is that more people will be pushed to credit to cover rising bills, which could be storing up problems further down the line when repayments are due.”

Of course, credit card borrowing is not the only kind of borrowing, payday loans are lurking out there, too and according to reports, interest in these kinds of loans has been ballooning in recent months as living costs surge. Research from Raisin UK has found that in the last 12 months, internet searches for these kinds of loans shot up by 350%.

Experts, however, warn that payday loans, while sometimes attractive, are an easy route into a slippery path of debt. Kevin Mountford, Co-founder of Raisin UK, outlined: “It is easy to fall into a cycle of debt with these schemes if you continually require them to cover shortfalls. With rising interest rates, payday loans will most likely leave you struggling financially, even more as you will owe these companies a continually growing amount of money.”

Adverts for this kind of predatory loan are on the rise and appearing on Google, too. A recent report found that those who searched terms like “quick money now” and “need money help”​ were directed by Google to sites offering high-interest loans to those in financial difficulty. One site advertised when individuals searched for the above terms was Tendo Loan, which offered “Cash in 10 minutes guaranteed. 3-36 months. No credit check!” The site went on to say that those looking to find a loan could have it “delivered faster than pizza!”

How to protect yourself when borrowing

It’s undeniable that millions of people in the UK are facing increasing financial hardship, and predictions are that it is only going to get worse. By 2023, it’s said that as many as 16 million people could be officially classed as living in poverty. So, it’s understandable that some may be faced with no other option than to borrow. That said, when borrowing, regardless of who you’re borrowing from, it’s important you safeguard yourself. Below, we’ve highlighted some top tips.

Research, research, research

When financially desperate, it’s easy to get caught up in signing a loan that you know little about. So, it’s important to make sure you research. Research into the company, make sure that they’re reputable and trustworthy, and get all the facts about the loan, including and especially the small print.

Don’t get conned into borrowing more than you asked for

Lenders may try and talk you into borrowing more than you were looking for or encourage you to opt for a different kind of loan. Make sure whatever decision you make is informed, and not pressured. Take your time, and stick to your guns.

Don’t overcommit, and make sure you can pay back whatever you borrow

Make sure you review your finances before committing yourself to a loan. Entering an agreement with high-interest rates may lead you down a debt hole that’s hard to get out of, and leave you in a worse position than when you started.

The new tax year is almost upon us, and a number of changes are coming into effect in April 2022. These changes could hit you in the pocket, so there may be some preparations you may need to make to ensure you’re ready.

From council tax, car tax, pensions and tax codes, make sure you’ve got your finger on the pulse this April. At The Salary Calculator, we’ll walk you through:

• What is staying the same
• Incoming changes to council tax
• The new changes coming in for car tax
• What’s happening with pensions
• What to check before 5th April
• How to work out any changes to your taxes

What will stay the same in the new tax year?

Although the new tax year often brings in changes to the amount of tax people pay, as per Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s budget, there will be a number of freezes rather than cuts.

Income tax is frozen for this year and will remain that way until 2026. So, the threshold of £12,570 will stay the same, as well as the basic rate tax of 20%, which you will pay on any earnings over that amount up to £50,270. While this may sound positive at first, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), over nine million workers will pay more as a result.

However, the situation in Scotland is different, as a devolved nation, there are different rates and thresholds when it comes to income tax. Any changes can be viewed here on the Scottish government website.

Capital gains tax which people pay when they make a profit on assets such as a buy to let property, and the allowance on this tax, which is set at £12,300 is also being frozen until 2026.

What changes are coming for council tax?

In February, Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced that roughly 20 million households in council tax bands A to D in England will be impacted by a £3bn council tax rebate. According to the government, this includes 95% of rented properties and the rebate does not have to be repaid.

The same kind of scheme is going ahead in both Scotland and Wales, with the former offering a £150 council tax rebate.

According to the Local Government Association (LGA), those eligible should set up a direct debit to speed up the process. Cllr Shaun Davies, LGA’s Resources Board chairman, outlined that without taking that step, it could “take longer.” This is because the local council will have to reach out first and then individuals will have to make a claim themselves.

While those living in bands E to H in England and Scotland won’t be eligible, you can check your eligibility by visiting the government website.

What changes will come into effect for car tax?

Car tax, otherwise known as Vehicle Excise Duty (VED), is increasing in April, and the amount you pay will depend on a few factors, including how old your vehicle is and the amount of emissions it produces.

To work out how your vehicle will be affected by the new changes, head over here, where you’ll be able to work out if you’ll encounter any increases.

What’s ahead for pensions

When it comes to the changes in store for pensions, there has been a suspension of the triple lock and instead, a new double lock is being temporarily introduced.

As per the triple lock, the state pension rises in line with the highest of the following three measures every year:

• A flat 2.5% rise
• Average earnings growth
• Inflation

It also applied to both the basic state pension and the new state pension. That said, the new double lock means that for 2022-23, the state pension will either rise by 2.5% or the inflation rate, which will, according to the government, last until 2023-24.

What to look out for this April

As the new tax year approaches, experts warn that people should lookout for a number of things.

The first thing to check is your tax code. While the most common tax code for the tax year 2021/22 and 2022/23 is 1257L, which will not change until 2026, it’s your responsibility to check that you’re not using the wrong one. Through checking if your tax code is correct, you’ll also be able to review whether you are owed money from HMRC or owe money.

As recently covered by The Salary Calculator, NI contributions will go up in April, too, so make sure you’re up-to-date with how the upcoming NI contribution changes will affect you.

Likewise, it has been advised that those who had to work from home during the 2020 lockdown or during the 2021/22 financial year to claim should review their entitlement to tax relief. This can be worth up to £125 from HMRC, and people are being encouraged to check what they’re owed before April 5, which could see the introduction of a rule change on claiming to work from home tax allowance.

How to work out any changes to your taxes

It’s always best to prepare for what’s in store, and if you want to check out how your finances will be affected by the upcoming changes in April, head over to The Salary Calculator, where you’ll be able to work out your take-home pay.

After two years of lockdowns and travel restrictions, many will be looking at summer 2022 as the opportunity to finally escape and go on the holiday they’ve dreamt of for so long. That said, when it comes to travelling abroad, there’s a lot of factors to consider – one of them being foreign currency.

Perhaps you’re a little rusty when it comes to exchange rates, or maybe it’s the first time you’re leaving the country; after all, nearly a quarter of Brits have never been on a plane, and one in ten have never left the UK. Whatever the reason, if you’ve got questions about foreign currency, at The Salary Calculator, we’re here to answer all your burning questions. In this article, we’ll explain:

• How the pound is looking against the euro and the dollar
• Whether you should buy foreign currency in advance and what the risks are
• Top tips for securing the best exchange rate and avoiding charges

The pound versus the euro and the dollar

Exchange rates are in constant fluctuation, and a wide range of factors can affect them. Everything from political stability, interest rates and inflation to public debt, speculation and money supply can make a currency go up or down in value.

When it comes to the GBP/USD rate, over the last five years, it has been as high as $1.4328 and as low as $1.1492. That said, currently, the exchange rate is closer to the top-end of the trading range, and the higher it is, the cheaper it is to buy dollars with pounds.

Meanwhile, the GBP/ EUR rate, in 2021 and the beginning of 2022, has also been trading at the high end of its 5-year trading range.

Buying currency ahead of time: The advantages and risks

In some situations, when buying currency, it can be advantageous to plan ahead of time. In cases where you want to exchange large amounts of money, or you’re looking to purchase a currency that’s slightly more obscure than the euro or dollar where the exchange operator may have to order it in, buying in advance could be a good idea. That said, for ‘exotic currency,’ waiting until you arrive at your destination could be a better idea, as local rates are usually better.

You may also be thinking about buying your currency ahead of time in case the pound weakens. However, it’s important to keep your finger on the pulse when it comes to buying currency and check for updates on the exchange market. This can be done at XE.com, where you’ll be able to access live updates on the pound’s value against other currencies. Starting this research around a month before you’re due to head off is a wise idea. If, for example, you notice a trend of the rate steadily going down, buying then and there could help you get the most from your money. A safer bet, though, is to buy half of your travel money before and half later.

For trips where you’re unlikely to need to use cash, to avoid this altogether, it might be worth using a no foreign transaction fee travel card to pay for your purchases.

Tips for getting the best exchange rate and avoiding charges

There are some dos and don’ts when it comes to exchange rates and foreign currency, and below are some of our top tips.

Don’t buy currency at the airport

This is the number one way you will lose out when buying currency. Airport kiosks offer the worst holiday money exchange rates across the board, and they do this because they’re charging you for the convenience. If you’re up against time, or perhaps your trip is a spur of the moment escape, ordering your currency online and picking it up at the airport will help you avoid terrible exchange rates.

When abroad, pay in the local currency

Once you’ve flown to your holiday destination, make sure, when given the option, you choose to pay for purchases in the local currency. This will allow you to avoid both poor exchange rates and currency conversion fees.

Make sure to shop around

There are lots of foreign currency providers in the UK, so it’s worth comparing rates, even if the difference in exchange rates isn’t huge, you can still save a little.

Avoid using your credit or debit card for purchases abroad

When you use your card abroad, it’s likely your bank will charge you a non-sterling transaction fee (usually around 2-3%). Alongside this, you may be hit with additional fees for withdrawing cash and interest on top of the withdrawal. Some cards  charge between 50p and £1.50 for transactions on top of their normal exchange rate charge. Banks who are the culprits for this include Lloyds, TSB and Halifax.